The global fertilizer market is completely chaotic, but we are firmly holding onto the spring plowing fertilizer. This operation is really exhilarating!

On March 14th, the General Administration of Customs issued a hard policy, suspending the export of core fertilizer raw materials until August 31st. Even if overseas orders are signed and the goods are not cleared, the fertilizer must be left for domestic spring plowing and summer harvesting. This incident directly shook the global market, and the reason behind it is that fertilizers have long been a more critical food strategic resource than chips. The United States even listed phosphorus as a key defense material, and the world is crazily competing for fertilizers, which is actually the confidence of food security.

Why is there suddenly not enough fertilizer? The situation in the Middle East has become chaotic, with Qatars natural gas supply cut off and local urea factories shutting down directly. This has triggered a chain reaction: factories in India have reduced production, four fertilizer plants in Bangladesh have shut down, and Russian nitrogen fertilizer companies have also stopped until May. The global fertilizer supply chain has been severely affected. Prices have skyrocketed, with urea prices in the Middle East rising by 50%, the United States rising by nearly 30% in a single week, and Brazil rising by 35% in two weeks. Farmers in many countries are either unable to buy fertilizer or cannot afford it, and they dont even want to plant on land.

To make matters worse, the probability of a super El Ni ñ o occurring in 2026 is as high as 80%. The Philippines and Vietnam will suffer from floods, India and Australia will experience high temperatures and droughts, and natural disasters will exacerbate droughts. In some areas, food production may only be around 50% or 60% of normal levels, leading to global inflation and a decline in demand for industrial products.

But China has already set up a plan! In early January, we began to prepare when we noticed the abnormality. In February, the No. 1 central document set the grain supply guarantee. The National Development and Reform Commission issued six measures to smooth the transportation of chemical fertilizers. By the end of March, more than 10 million tons of chemical fertilizers from the State Reserve will be put into use to open up the supply. Nowadays, the domestic prices of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers are more than 1000 yuan lower than international prices, so there is no need to worry about using fertilizers for spring plowing.

In fact, the inspiration behind this is that food security is never a trivial matter. Only by taking the initiative in agricultural supply can we truly safeguard the livelihoods of 1.4 billion people. In times of global chaos, being able to farm diligently is the hardcore sense of security!